Doomsday +7

I wrote somewhere below, in regard to Iraq, that the perception is what it is. Politically, reality doesn't matter much.

So it goes with New Orleans. One week after the levee broke:

• The New Orleans diaspora now includes the 100,000 people who didn't leave before the storm. There's a quarter million in Baton Rouge, a quarter million in Texas, and others in places as far-flung as Colorado, Minnesota and Massachusetts.
  
  
• The 17th Street Canal levee has been sealed and water is being pumped out of the city.
  
  
• Order seems to have been restored.
  
  
• Residents in some areas have been allowed back in to inventory the damage.

Until the water goes down, that's about all that can be accomplished. Inventory of the political damage to the Bush administration may take a little longer. The news media have latched onto the story line that 1) the federal response was slow and 2) it was slow because the FEMA director used to be the lawyer for the Arabian Horse Association.

It's certainly true that response -- not federal response, just plain old response -- seemed slow. That's because we were glued to TV sets watching a flood wash away one of America's most storied cities. The response already seemed slow by noon last Tuesday.

But that's not necessarily the case. For example, anyone remember Hurricane Ivan? Hit the Florida Panhandle last year? Here's the timeline (all response information below from FEMA. Not an impartial source, granted, but I figure they're careful about what's on their web site, knowing a congressional investigation's pending.):

• September 16, 2004: Ivan hits, Bush declares disaster area.
  
  
• Landfall plus 2: Disaster Medical Assistance Teams deployed from California, Oregon, Oklahoma, Georgia and Texas.
  
  
• Landfall plus 3: Panhandle Disaster Recovery Teams begin operations.
  
  
• Landfall plus 7: The Department of Transportation "has delivered more than 2.5 million gallons of water, 6.8 million pounds of ice and 7.2 million Meals Ready to Eat (MREs) to Saufley Air Field Logistical Staging Area for distribution throughout the disaster area."

Emphasis added. I don't know how many supplies had been distributed by then, but I assume that was done by the state and local people.

Here's the Katrina timeline:

• Landfall minus 1: Emergency aid pre-approved for response.
  
  
• August 28: Hurricane Katrina makes landfall.
  
  
• Landfall plus 1: FEMA "today urged all fire and emergency services departments not to respond to counties and states affected by Hurricane Katrina without being requested and lawfully dispatched by state and local authorities under mutual aid agreements and the Emergency Management Assistance Compact."
  
  
• Landfall plus 1, cont'd: Levees break in New Orleans. As of 10 a.m., FEMA had, among other things:
  
  -- Deployed nine "urban search and rescue task forces from Florida, Virginia, Maryland, Texas, Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri.
  
  -- Deployed "31 teams from the National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) to staging areas in Anniston, Ala., Memphis, Tenn., Houston, Dallas, and New Orleans, including 23 Disaster Medical Assistance Teams. The teams bring truckloads of medical equipment and supplies with them and are trained to handle trauma, pediatrics, surgery and mental health problems. Two Veterinary Medical Assistance Teams are also included as part of NDMS assets deployed, which are able to support and rescue pets, and provide any needed veterinary medical care for rescue dogs."
  
  -- Deployed "500 trucks of ice, 500 trucks of water and 350 trucks of meals ready to eat (MREs) available for distribution over the next 10 days."
  
  
• Landfall plus 2: Disaster Medical Assistance Teams deployed from eight states.
  
  
• Landfall plus 3:
  
  -- More than 82,000 meals served.
  
  -- 1,200 people conducting search and rescue missions.
  
  -- "Fifty-one teams from the National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) have been deployed, including five Disaster Medical Assistance Teams (DMATs) that are supporting New Orleans medical facilities and hospitals not fully operational. These teams have truckloads of medical equipment and supplies with them and are trained to handle trauma, pediatrics, surgery and mental health problems. Additional teams are staged in Anniston, Ala.; Camp Shelby, Miss.; and Baton Rogue, La., and will move out as conditions permit."
  
  
• Landfall plus 7:
  
  -- 8.5 million MREs delivered.
  
  -- 9,400 hospital evacuations, doesn't include nursing homes.
  
  -- Portable hospital on site from Nevada.
  
  -- DOD mobile hospital operational at airport.
  
  -- 1.1 million barrels of diesel shipped to New Orleans.

From the way the veins were popping out of Tim Russert's neck on Sunday and some of the other reporting, you'd think that FEMA was frozen in the headlights. It just doesn't seem to be the case.

What is the case, if you compare the two timelines, is that FEMA followed its well-practiced plan. That plan didn't take into account (probably because we've never seen one televised before) that the destruction of a U.S. city just isn't an acceptable option to the U.S. public. Even though all of the damage was done within a few hours of the levees failing.

The plan also didn't take into account state and local officials pretty well blowing off their own hurricane preparedness plan.

Or the nature of the state and local officials they'd be dealing with.

The reality matters to New Orleans and the rest of the Gulf Coast, and despite everything that's been done, reality in this case was overwhelming. The perception matters politically, which really isn't that important, unless your name is George Bush.
*****
I’ve done my Corner-that-never-links link for the week, so I’ll toss this one off to Vodkapundit. Ace has more Katrina stuff, while Jeff Goldstein takes apart Keith Olbermann (and thanks to both for the links last week). Katrina's still the topic of choice at OTB. And Wizbang hits the same video linked above. Of course, they've got more comments.